Micro musing: what can change in a week.
The past week saw the wider markets experience some hiccups, with bitcoin briefly testing $89k this Monday. But the dip was short-lived and so I hope the resilient ones survived unscathed. What’s next with Trump’s inauguration next Monday?
I agree with Chris that this may be a paradigm shift, even if drawdowns will continue to be of the essence given all the speculation. But crypto — especially BTC — is now a different asset class and few seem to have noticed the change.
Moreover, the overall macro scenario is still healthy for risk assets. The economy is recovering and inflation is lowering, but prices are still high and people want better economic performance — so the politicians will pressure central banks.
And even if I don’t believe Trump will be able to easily get a BTC reserve bill approved, it’s clear that “things are about to get crazy”, as Senator Cynthia Lummis just remarked — even if later contextualised as “bullish on innovation”.
Now, looking past the short-term politics, let’s check the most significant trend of the past quarter and of the year ahead: AI agents. There’s a lot of potential on that front, but you can’t forget that every project is playing the 100x shilling game.
To compound the issue, some popular NFT creators from the last cycle recently discussed that crypto and its AI agents can birth AGI — which is just wrong, as cygaar nicely explains here. So don’t fall for the hype and DYOR more than ever.
Lastly, note that even if I started this post defending the argument we might be in a supercycle, remember I also noted how drawdowns will still occur. For that matter, I agree that next week we can start to see pre-summer euphoria.
I’ll continue to monitor this situation. If now there are still strong drivers to sustain a pump for the next months, things may change when the Northern hemisphere heats up and traders feel inclined to take profits and rest for a while.
Chart art: what can change in five years, part I.
Three things: what can change in xiaohongchu.
Franklin Templeton reports on the intersection between AI agents and crypto.
Jeff shares the latest about “where the AI Agent space stands right now”.
Nikki Siapno explains how you can build your own AI agent.