Life update: we're so back
Had to pause a bit due to work but 'tis the season to resume writing
Weekly musing: what will they say?
On Sept. 30th I told you the bulls were free. One month later BTC broke its ATH and the rest is history. Sadly I got busier than usual with conferences (Devcon was a blast) and there was just too much happening with the elections. But now I’m back!
It’s nice to return to this bullish state of affairs. Microstrategy has been added to the Nasdaq 100 and the US stock market is euphoric. Yet, crypto funding rates remain quite healthy, showing crypto buyers are unusually rational! What’s next?
Let’s dive a little bit deeper into the current market trends. As usual, I enjoy writing so I can check how I’m feeling. A key part of the process is balancing out what I’m reading to be the general sentiment in my circles and on Twitter.
In this case, Chris relayed this important message on a day when BTC experienced a 10% crash. A week after we can safely look back and say it was just a blip. The teaching is apt, though, and will be so relevant when euphoria kicks in.
Meanwhile, I agree with Alex that this looks like Dec. 2020 and that the 2021 top is a good mirror for 2025. What remains to be seen is if the supercycle dampens the fall. For now, I agree that if it exists it is only applicable to BTC.
And that’s why I’ll just be focused on the orange coin. And on the orange man. So, now that I’ve given you my market update, let’s muse about the real drivers: a) the latest tech narratives that can sustain the bull and b) the political backdrop.
Starting with politics, note Trump’s inauguration will only take place on January 20th. Yet, many are pricing in the overhaul his administration has promised in all things crypto regulation. Naturally, the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is also key.
In other words, the political backdrop is so very warm, and not only in the US. Members of parliaments around the world are waking up to the implications of a sovereign nation adopting the orange coin, the latest being Japan and Germany.
Lastly, as for b) the technological narratives, I’m particularly interested in the return of the ICO model, especially because it’s more regulated now — yet much more democratic than the existing landscape of VC-dominated fundraising.
I’ve mused about the comeback of fairer launches three times this year and the narrative continues to gain steam. Additionally, you can expect me to also dive into the intersection of age-old lending and blockchain — it’s a big deal indeed!
Chart art: how much will they buy?
Three things: how much will it eat?
Bravos Research reminds us Treasury bills now yield more than the S&P 500 and that’s dangerous for the stock market.
The gigantic VanEck, which is now using a Pudgy Penguin as its profile picture, shares its 10 crypto predictions for 2025.
Sam Broner explains how stablecoins will eat payments — another hot topic we’re very keen on at the FV Bank!
Meme moment: what will you do differently?
FV Bank: what will you do with this new feature?
